For over four thousand years, MEGIDDO, a hill in northern Israel, has been the site
of many battles. Ancient cities were established there to serve as a fortress on the
plain of Jezreel to guard a mountain pass. As Megiddo was built and rebuilt, one city
upon the other, a mound or hill was formed. The Hebrew word "Armageddon"
means "hill of Megiddo." In English, the word has come to represent battle itself.
The last book in the New Testament of the Bible designates Armageddon as the
assembly point in the apocalyptic setting of God's final and conclusive battle against
evil. The name "Megiddo" is an apt title for a project that analyzes those who believe
the year 2000 will usher in the end of the world and who are willing to perpetrate acts
of violence to bring that end about.
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The year 2000 is being discussed and debated at all levels of society. Most of the
discussions regarding this issue revolve around the topic of technology and our society's
overwhelming dependence on the multitude of computers and computer chips which make our
world run smoothly. However, the upcoming millennium also holds important implications
beyond the issue of computer technology. Many extremist individuals and groups place some
significance on the next millennium, and as such it will present challenges to law enforcement at
many levels. The significance is based primarily upon either religious beliefs relating to the
Apocalypse or political beliefs relating to the New World Order (NWO) conspiracy theory. The
challenge is how well law enforcement will prepare and respond.
The following report, entitled "Project Megiddo," is intended to analyze the potential for
extremist criminal activity in the United States by individuals or domestic extremist groups who
profess an apocalyptic view of the millennium or attach special significance to the year 2000. The
purpose behind this assessment is to provide law enforcement agencies with a clear picture of
potential extremism motivated by the next millennium. The report does not contain information
on domestic terrorist groups whose actions are not influenced by the year 2000.
There are numerous difficulties involved in providing a thorough analysis of domestic
security threats catalyzed by the new millennium. Quite simply, the very nature of the current
domestic terrorism threat places severe limitations on effective intelligence gathering and
evaluation. Ideological and philosophical belief systems which attach importance, and possibly
violence, to the millennium have been well-articulated. From a law enforcement perspective, the
problem therefore is not a lack of understanding of motivating ideologies: The fundamental
problem is that the traditional focal point for counterterrorism analysis -- the terrorist group -- is
not always well-defined or relevant in the current environment.
The general trend in domestic extremism is the terrorist’s disavowal of traditional,
hierarchical, and structured terrorist organizations. Even well-established militias, which tend to
organize along military lines with central control, are characterized by factionalism and disunity.
While several "professional” terrorist groups still exist and present a continued threat to domestic
security, the overwhelming majority of extremist groups in the United States have adopted a
fragmented, leaderless structure where individuals or small groups act with autonomy. Clearly,
the worst act of domestic terrorism in United States history was perpetrated by merely two
individuals: Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols. In many cases, extremists of this sort are
extremely difficult to identify until after an incident has occurred. Thus, analysis of domestic
extremism in which the group serves as the focal point of evaluation has obvious limitations.
The Project Megiddo intelligence initiative has identified very few indications of specific
threats to domestic security. Given the present nature of domestic extremism, this is to be
expected. However, this is a function of the limitations of the group-oriented model of
counterterrorism analysis and should not be taken necessarily as reflective of a minor or trivial
domestic threat. Without question, this initiative has revealed indicators of potential violent
activity on the part of extremists in this country. Militias, adherents of racist belief systems such
as Christian Identity and Odinism, and other radical domestic extremists are clearly focusing on
the millennium as a time of action. Certain individuals from these various perspectives are
acquiring weapons, storing food and clothing, raising funds through fraudulent means, procuring
safe houses, preparing compounds, surveying potential targets, and recruiting new converts.
These and other indicators are not taking place in a vacuum, nor are they random or arbitrary. In
the final analysis, while making specific predictions is extremely difficult, acts of violence in
commemoration of the millennium are just as likely to occur as not. In the absence of intelligence
that the more established and organized terrorist groups are planning millennial violence as an
organizational strategy, violence is most likely to be perpetrated by radical fringe members of
established groups. For example, while Aryan Nations leader Richard Butler publicly frowns on
proactive violence, adherents of his religion or individual members of his organization may
commit acts of violence autonomously.
Potential cult-related violence presents additional challenges to law enforcement. The
potential for violence on behalf of members of biblically-driven cults is determined almost
exclusively by the whims of the cult leader. Therefore, effective intelligence and analysis of such
cults requires an extensive understanding of the cult leader. Cult members generally act to serve
and please the cult leader rather than accomplish an ideological objective. Almost universally, cult
leaders are viewed as messianic in the eyes of their followers. Also, the cult leader’s prophecies,
preachings, orders, and objectives are subject to indiscriminate change. Thus, while analysis of
publicly stated goals and objectives of cults may provide hints about their behavior and intentions,
it is just as likely to be uninformed or, at worst, misleading. Much more valuable is a thorough
examination of the cult leader, his position of power over his followers, and an awareness of the
responding behavior and activity of the cult. Sudden changes in activity - for example, less time
spent on "Bible study” and more time spent on "physical training” - indicate that the cult may be
preparing for some type of action.
The millennium holds special significance for many, and as this pivotal point in time
approaches, the impetus for the initiation of violence becomes more acute. Several religiouslymotivated groups envision a quick, fiery ending in an apocalyptic battle. Others may initiate a
sustained campaign of terrorism in the United States to prevent the NWO. Armed with the
urgency of the millennium as a motivating factor, new clandestine groups may conceivably form
to engage in violence toward the U.S. Government or its citizens.
Most importantly, this analysis clearly shows that perceptions matter. The perceptions of
the leaders and followers of extremist organizations will contribute much toward the ultimate
course of action they choose. For example, in-depth analysis of Y2K compliancy on the part of
various key sectors that rely on computers has determined that, despite a generally positive
outlook for overall compliance, there will be problem industries and minor difficulties and
inconveniences.
1
If they occur, these inconveniences are likely to cause varying responses by the
extreme fringes. Members of various militia groups, for example, have identified potentially
massive power failures as an indication of a United Nations-directed NWO takeover. While
experts have indicated that only minor brownouts will occur, various militias are likely to perceive
such minor brownouts as indicative of a larger conspiracy.
2
The Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem has stated that
some state and local governments could be unprepared, including the inability to provide benefits
payments.
3
This could have a significant impact in major urban areas, resulting in the possibility
for civil unrest. Violent white supremacists are likely to view such unrest as an affirmation of a
racist, hate-filled world view. Likewise, militia members who predict the implementation of
martial law in response to a Y2K computer failure would become all the more fearful.
1
U.S. Congress, Senate, Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, Investigating the Impact of the
Year 2000 Problem, February 24, 1996, pp. 1-6.
2
Ibid, p. 3.
3
Ibid. p. 5.
II. INTRODUCTION
Are we already living on the precipice of the Apocalypse - the chaotic final period
of warfare between the forces of good and evil signaling the second coming of
Christ, as forecast in the New Testament’s Book of Revelation? Or, will life on
earth continue for another 1,000 years, allowing humans to eliminate disease and
solve the mysteries of the aging process so they can live as long as Methuselah,
colonize space, commune with extraterrestrials, unravel the secrets of
teleportation, and usher in a golden age of peace and productivity?
4
At first glance, some of the predictions compiled in Prophecies for the New Millennium
that claim to foretell how the millennium will affect the United States seem benign. In fact, those
predictions capture some of the countless ways that domestic terrorists view how the millennium
will affect the world. The threat posed by extremists as a result of perceived events associated
with the Year 2000 (Y2K) is very real.
Numerous religious extremists claim that a race war will soon begin, and have taken
steps to become martyrs in their predicted battle between good and evil. Three recent incidents
committed by suspects who adhere to ideologies that emphasize millennial related violence
illustrate those beliefs: Buford O. Furrow, Jr., the man charged in the August 1999 shootings at a
Los Angeles area Jewish day care center, told authorities "its time for America to wake and kill
the jews"; Ben Smith, who committed suicide after shooting at minorities in Indiana and Illinois,
killing two and injuring ten, over the July 4, 1999 weekend, was found to have literature in his
home that indicated the year 2000 would be the start of the killing of minorities; and John William
King, the man convicted in the dragging death of James Byrd, Jr., a black man in Jasper, Texas,
believed that his actions would help to initiate a race war. Each of these men believed in the
imminence of a racial holy war.
Meanwhile, for members of the militia movement the new millennium has a political
overtone rather than a religious one. It is their belief that the United Nations has created a secret
plan, known as the New World Order (NWO), to conquer the world beginning in 2000. The
NWO will be set in motion by the Y2K computer crisis.
Religious motivation and the NWO conspiracy theory are the two driving forces behind
the potential for millennial violence. As the end of the millennium draws near, biblical prophecy
and political philosophy may merge into acts of violence by the more extreme members of
domestic terrorist groups that are motivated, in part, by religion. The volatile mix of apocalyptic
religions and NWO conspiracy theories may produce violent acts aimed at precipitating the end of
the world as prophesied in the Bible.
When and how Christ’s second coming will occur is a critical point in the ideology of
those motivated by extremist religious beliefs about the millennium. There is no consensus within
4
Cliff Linedecker, Prophecies for the New Millennium (Lantana, FL: Micromags, 1999), p. 3-4.
